Predictions of Fire, or The Calm Before the Storm
The wildfires in the Oregon Cascades are settling down to a dull roar, most of them at least 75% contained, and none of them posing any real threat to lives or property. Sure, there are interior hot spots that flare up occasionally, and there will doubtless be areas that smolder underground all winter long, only to surface next summer after prolonged drying and heating. But the immediate danger is history.
When it comes to the other two big stories in my life, Covid and politics (which for God knows what reason are inextricably intertwined with each other in America), the same thing might seem to be the case. Yes, there is the ubiquitous bickering back and forth, and there are protests ongoing in every major U.S. city, but overall our news outlets have decided to focus on other things…the political substories of the SCOTUS nominee and the Covid relief package, the Covid substory of the inevitable yet elusive vaccine, etc. It might seem like things are calming down.
The reality is that on both the Covid and political fronts, the zealots on both sides are gearing up for legal, moral, and yes, physical battles that are likely to ramp up quickly, last all winter long, and claim hundreds of thousands of American lives in the process. A brief explanation follows.
On the political front, I had convinced myself this past summer that Trump would step down if (but only if) he were defeated in the election in a landslide. I now seriously doubt he will even in that case. His campaign behavior during a tumultuous period of time that includes his own bout of COVID-19 points to an objective that is decidedly not to win over undecided voters. He is spending a little time in so-called battleground states, yes, but he is dedicating more time and energy playing to his minions in Blue states most would consider a lost cause for him. The reason for this is simple: he knows he’s going to lose the election, and his tactics have shifted away from trying to win, toward mobilizing his base to reject the election results to the point of violent protest.
I’m not saying I know Trump will lose the election (even though he will). What I’m saying is no matter who loses, the losing side’s avid supporters will take to the streets and do its best to disrupt American society…and from what we’ve seen the last couple of years, both sides have gotten very good at disruption and violence. Violence from one side will be met with violence from the other, and law enforcement will be lucky if they can even contain the destruction to a limited area. News reports will spin the stories to match their political agendas. The news channel you watch will determine and frame the reality you live in…FOX News will contradict MSNBC, and vice versa. Americans will be forced to choose a side; simply saying that “violence of any kind is bad” will not be enough. We will all either condemn the side that lost for not conceding defeat gracefully, or condemn the election process for being “rigged” and “fake”. To adopt any third opinion will be seen as spineless, and thus discounted. Families and close friends will be divided even further than they already are.
On the Covid front, if Trump wins the election we are doomed this fall and winter. He has already invoked the fictitious “war on Christmas”, stating that Biden wants to cancel the holidays (Biden has never stated any such thing, and as a practicing Catholic will celebrate Christmas again this year). A Trump victory will mean a resurgence for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s in “Covid parties” where revelers pack into tight spaces unmasked to eat, drink, and spread. But as much as I hate to say it, a Biden victory will actually have an even worse effect, as Trumpers will be motivated to hold holiday parties in a sort of protest against the “war on Christmas” (which again, does not exist, except in the minds of privileged WASPs).
Between the riots and the celebrations, COVID-19 will rage on unchecked this winter in most parts of America. Mix in a flu epidemic, a natural disaster or two on steroids thanks to climate change, and global financial panic, and we have the makings of Armageddon.
Bike Newbie 