Bike Newbie

Having Grasped at Straws, They Slip Through His Fingers

Starting with a more local/regional topic, we had our first gullywasher of a storm for this winter. The highlands got about a foot of snow, and the lowlands got pounded with rain. Any fire activity that might remain in my region would be limited to smoldering deep underground, so today will be the last day I report Fire Day number in my post heading.

Shifting to more global/national topics, the 2020 U.S. Presidential election is over. Every major U.S. news outlet, including Fox News and other conservative sympathizers, has declared Joe Biden the winner. The leaders of every world power have called Biden to congratulate him, with the telling exceptions of Russia and Turkey. When the states certify their votes and the electors cast them in a few weeks, it will be nothing more than a formality with no possibility of surprises, just as it was in 2016.

So why hasn’t Trump conceded the election? His campaign has gone into full retreat mode, withdrawing almost all the legal challenges that haven’t already been thrown out by judges. Why not show a bit of class in defeat, do what one can to smooth a transition and thus nurse a deeply wounded nation, and get started on the right foot for a possible 2024 campaign?

The answer is simple. The reason he is being a jackass and refusing to concede (to the detriment of the entire nation, mind you, not just Democrats/liberals) is that his base wouldn’t have it any other way. See, Trumpers are the archetype of the Ugly American: self-centered, overly defensive, and driven by identity politics. The way they deal with challenges is to oversimplify and accuse the “others”, just as the way they deal with success is to oversimplify and self-congratulate. They claim to espouse principles like dignity, respect for our laws, and a level playing field for all candidates, but really they only apply these principles to the “other” side. When it comes to their own behavior, anything goes in victory or defeat…anything…including moronic displays of “patriotism”, violence, and cold-blooded murder. This pattern is reminiscent of the supporters of virtually every fear-based regime since the dawn of time. The only word for them is thugs.

Trump has nothing to lose by playing his childish games, and everything to lose by conceding now, when you look at it through a thug’s eyes. Despite all their flag waving, thugs don’t care about America, and neither does Trump as Thug-in-Chief. What they care about is their fragile identities and winning at any cost including American lives…and if that involves the opportunity to grab the Kevlar and the AR-15 and go stomping around somewhere in front of cameras, then so much the better. In a thug’s eyes, conceding defeat isn’t classy or smart or respectful of democracy, it’s just weak. And because every bully is really just a punch-throwing coward, no display of “weakness” (what the rest of us would call respect or courtesy or manners) can ever be tolerated.

So don’t expect Trump to ever concede the election, even as he is escorted out of the White House on January 20, 2021. He will continue to claim huge numbers of fraudulent votes (it would have to be millions, all for Biden) swung the count in Biden’s favor…all without a shred of evidence, and all counter to the many credible reports that 2020 was the most-watched, most-policed and most secure election this country has ever seen. The saddest part is that his millions of thugs will continue to believe him and will actively do what they can to sabotage the rule of law over the months and years. If you were upset by images of BLM protesters in urban areas, wait until you see your statehouses, city halls and shopping centers overwhelmed by armed men spewing hate and occasionally bullets. The divide is far from healed.

The Never-ending Election, or It Ain’t Over Till the Fat Cheeto Leaves

270 days. Nine months. Children conceived at the start of lockdown are now being born as we head into what is likely to be the darkest winter humans have seen in a century or so.

Still, despite the darkness, or perhaps more visible because of it, there are bright stars of hope. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won the election for the U.S. Presidency, a fact that even Fox News does not question. Pharmaceutical companies are announcing progress on vaccines that may wind up being distributed next year. And, if nothing else, we will have entertainment during our winter lockdown: Microsoft, Sony, and Apple among others are launching a slew of products promising to satisfy our hunger for electronic amusement, and there is once again a new episode of The Mandalorian for us to devour every Friday.

But let’s go back to the darkness for a second, since it is the undeniable backdrop of the state of our Union. Every day we break the previous day’s record of new Covid cases, without any relief in sight. States and the hospitals in them, initially panicky about Covid and the lack of equipment/capacity to handle it, then later relieved that the curve was beginning to flatten, are now once again making plans to cancel elective surgeries and make room for the incoming, crashing wave of new Covid patients requiring hospitalization. Halloween parties a couple of weeks ago are being blamed for this escalation, but in my opinion even one night of debauchery without masks (or without the right kind of masks) doesn’t fully explain why our Covid numbers are spiraling out of control without any end in sight.

This country is incompetent at a number of things, but we excel at denying the truth. We have created millions of climate deniers, millions of Covid deniers, and now millions of election deniers (with a very strong overlap amongst the three groups). Our fat, Cheeto-like Commander-In-Chief-For-Ten-More-Weeks has utterly failed the nation once again…he telegraphed that he would not accept the election’s results if not favorable to him, and he followed through with that move. The only problem is the Trump Administration has zero evidence of any “voter fraud” to offer to back up the dozens of lawsuits it has filed. Faced with no evidence, only baseless allegations, courts are largely forced to dismiss the suits. This somehow doesn’t seem to dampen the spirits of MAGAts at all: rally after rally of painted, flag-waving maniacs screaming either “Stop The Count!” or “Count The Vote!” (depending on who is currently leading in that state, of course) can be witnessed across the land.

Did anyone expect that the 2020 election would serve to heal and unite the nation, rather than deepening the divide(s)? I certainly didn’t. Still, it’s hard to watch all of this unfold and not be disappointed.

Back to the bright stars again. Progress is being made on a number of different emergency situations that looked quite hopeless just a couple of months ago. And while we won’t be “out of the woods” in a number of ways for a long time, and may never fully be, we are learning to live in the woods and be OK with it.

Lockdown: Everybody knows it’s right, nobody cares

Here is what car traffic looks like during the third wave of the most devastating (numbers-wise) global pandemic ever. This is from my admittedly limited point of view. Mornings are the best, in that there is little traffic. A huge chunk of society is either not working or working from home. This means no need to get up at oh-dark-thirty and hit the road, so most folks don’t. For those of us who want or need to be out and about early, this is good news.

The news changes somewhere between 10 and 11 in the morning, though, as folks finally start to roll out of the rack and take to the streets. Traffic escalates to about what I would consider pre-pandemic levels at midday.

By 4 in the afternoon, the streets and highways are choked. People are largely done with whatever they were doing at home, and now they’ve got cabin fever. So they hop in the car and go, in numbers that make me pine for the traffic jams of 2019. Where is everyone going? I suppose there is a percentage who are doing “essential” tasks such as: shopping for groceries or other essential items, health care appointments, and car maintenance/repair. But I would bet a very large sum of money these essential tasks do not account for nearly half of the traffic. Weekends are pretty much a repeat of this afternoon traffic, but on steroids.

So the next question would be: why? Why are people needlessly tooling around town when they know there is a pandemic ramping up yet again? I think there are probably some complicated answers that eggheads at our institutes of higher learning could formulate, but it boils down to people just don’t care.

As far as the next question of why don’t people care, when they certainly have got to have at least a few family members and friends who are vulnerable to COVID-19, and if nothing else self-preservation should kick in: I don’t have an answer. Maybe our need to have what we think is a “good time” is the strongest need of all. Maybe in this simulation the variables are tweaked in favor of the virus. Maybe it’s FOMO, or maybe it’s something completely unrelated. Whatever it is, it’s happening and it will ensure we won’t be done with COVID anytime soon.

Predictions of Fire, or The Calm Before the Storm

The wildfires in the Oregon Cascades are settling down to a dull roar, most of them at least 75% contained, and none of them posing any real threat to lives or property. Sure, there are interior hot spots that flare up occasionally, and there will doubtless be areas that smolder underground all winter long, only to surface next summer after prolonged drying and heating. But the immediate danger is history.

When it comes to the other two big stories in my life, Covid and politics (which for God knows what reason are inextricably intertwined with each other in America), the same thing might seem to be the case. Yes, there is the ubiquitous bickering back and forth, and there are protests ongoing in every major U.S. city, but overall our news outlets have decided to focus on other things…the political substories of the SCOTUS nominee and the Covid relief package, the Covid substory of the inevitable yet elusive vaccine, etc. It might seem like things are calming down.

The reality is that on both the Covid and political fronts, the zealots on both sides are gearing up for legal, moral, and yes, physical battles that are likely to ramp up quickly, last all winter long, and claim hundreds of thousands of American lives in the process. A brief explanation follows.

On the political front, I had convinced myself this past summer that Trump would step down if (but only if) he were defeated in the election in a landslide. I now seriously doubt he will even in that case. His campaign behavior during a tumultuous period of time that includes his own bout of COVID-19 points to an objective that is decidedly not to win over undecided voters. He is spending a little time in so-called battleground states, yes, but he is dedicating more time and energy playing to his minions in Blue states most would consider a lost cause for him. The reason for this is simple: he knows he’s going to lose the election, and his tactics have shifted away from trying to win, toward mobilizing his base to reject the election results to the point of violent protest.

I’m not saying I know Trump will lose the election (even though he will). What I’m saying is no matter who loses, the losing side’s avid supporters will take to the streets and do its best to disrupt American society…and from what we’ve seen the last couple of years, both sides have gotten very good at disruption and violence. Violence from one side will be met with violence from the other, and law enforcement will be lucky if they can even contain the destruction to a limited area. News reports will spin the stories to match their political agendas. The news channel you watch will determine and frame the reality you live in…FOX News will contradict MSNBC, and vice versa. Americans will be forced to choose a side; simply saying that “violence of any kind is bad” will not be enough. We will all either condemn the side that lost for not conceding defeat gracefully, or condemn the election process for being “rigged” and “fake”. To adopt any third opinion will be seen as spineless, and thus discounted. Families and close friends will be divided even further than they already are.

On the Covid front, if Trump wins the election we are doomed this fall and winter. He has already invoked the fictitious “war on Christmas”, stating that Biden wants to cancel the holidays (Biden has never stated any such thing, and as a practicing Catholic will celebrate Christmas again this year). A Trump victory will mean a resurgence for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s in “Covid parties” where revelers pack into tight spaces unmasked to eat, drink, and spread. But as much as I hate to say it, a Biden victory will actually have an even worse effect, as Trumpers will be motivated to hold holiday parties in a sort of protest against the “war on Christmas” (which again, does not exist, except in the minds of privileged WASPs).

Between the riots and the celebrations, COVID-19 will rage on unchecked this winter in most parts of America. Mix in a flu epidemic, a natural disaster or two on steroids thanks to climate change, and global financial panic, and we have the makings of Armageddon.

Two Americas, or We’re Not All In This Together

As we head toward winter, Wave Three of coronavirus, and an election that our fearless leader has already signaled he won’t accept the results of (unless he wins, of course), uncertainty abounds on all sides. One thing is clear, though: the political rift dividing our country has only deepened and widened from all this. We’re not coming together as a nation, and it’s highly unlikely anything short of an Independence Day-style alien attack will bring us together.

If you’ve read any of my posts over the past seven months, you may have picked up that this is a pet topic of mine. I don’t have a great explanation for that, other than it seems like such a contrast from the America I grew up in. Now, I grew up with Watergate, so I’m used to major controversy and the Liberal/Conservative divide. But things seemed very different back then, maybe in part because I was a child at the time, but I think it’s more than just that. I think most Americans, regardless of the politics they subscribed to, desired unity and believed in the two-party system. They saw and felt the tension between the two sides but didn’t take it personally, and generally a person’s politics had very little to do with their identity (there were exceptions, of course; I’m talking generally). More often than not, circles of family and friends included individuals from extreme opposite ends of the political spectrum, but the altercations if any were purely verbal…All in the Family was a great illustration of this common phenomenon.

Nowadays, one’s political affiliation is everything. It determines to a large extent what kind of “truth” you hear every day (FOX News versus NPR), what you watch for entertainment (NASCAR versus soccer), and what sort of greater reality you believe we all live in (conspiracy theories versus science/reason). Stupidly, it more or less dictates whether you want to do anything to slow the spread of COVID-19 (maskless Covid parties versus masks & distancing). I can walk down my street, look at someone coming the other way, and tell from 50 yards whether they lean Republican or Democrat, just by whether they “mask up” or not.

Because political affiliation is such a big part of our identities today, we get angry, offended, hurt, and upset like never before when someone expresses views that don’t agree with ours. The dialogues escalate and get personal more rapidly than a coronavirus U.S. case graph. Because of this, people on each side tend to stick with their own kind. You don’t see a lot of mixing/mingling of red and blue these days at all. This is good for avoiding shouting matches and fistfights (or worse), but not so good for each of us enriching our worldview. It seems that the more we hear from people that agree wholeheartedly with us, the more validated we feel in our set opinions, and the less willing we are to listen to views that don’t align perfectly but might give us additional insights and angles.

I see all of this happening, but don’t know what to do about it. Maybe I can try to be an example for others. Maybe the divide needs to get worse before it can be made better.

Winter is Coming: Recovery or Storm Surge?

These days it’s hard not to spend time wondering what the future will hold. Predictions are all over the board, but one thing is clear: the future is decidedly unclear, even as near as a few weeks away it is impossible to forecast with any certainty.

If you are an optimist, better days are just around the corner. Your lesser-of-two-evils will win the Presidential election in a landslide, thus providing certainty and stability to the nation’s government and economy. A safe and effective vaccine will be fast-tracked into widespread availability soon. The ongoing climate change reckoning of 2020 (unprecedented fires, hurricanes, etc.) will prove to be a spike on an otherwise steady chart. Stocks, jobs, and GDP will soar as the globe enters into recovery mode.

If you are a pessimist (as I tend to be, especially lately), this will be a rough winter, so get ready. You will want to stock up on rice, dry beans, batteries, warm clothes, MREs, and other survival staples as we head into a perfect storm of civil unrest, economic panic, unprecedented natural disasters, and the second/third major wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The election will be too close to call for weeks, and in the interim there will be extreme protests and demonstrations on both sides, each accusing the other of rigging the election. Violence will be met with violence, and it will escalate quickly nationwide. The unrest and uncertainty will send stock prices plummeting and the economy will largely grind to a halt as it did in late March. Meanwhile, COVID-19 will rage on unabated as 40% of Americans continue to scoff at science and believe it’s “all a lib hoax”. COVID-19 deaths in the US will surpass one-half million over the winter, driven upward by extreme weather events forcing people into shared warm-and-safe spaces, often with poor ventilation. Vaccine? Approvals and therefore production will be repeatedly postponed. The jobless majority will spend the winter starving, freezing, and scared, since the gridlocked and leaderless government will be powerless to help in any meaningful way. Winter 2020-Spring 2021 will make the past seven months look like pre 9/11 America, carefree and clueless.

What will actually happen this coming fall, winter and spring? Time will tell. If I had to bet on it (and in a way I do, and in a way I don’t) I would put my money on something halfway in between the optimist and the pessimist.

The Emperor has Coronavirus but No Cure

The only thing surprising about President Trump contracting COVID-19 is that it didn’t happen sooner. He, his staff and advisors have all flouted distancing, wearing masks and other scientifically proven techniques to stop the spread of the pandemic, instead touting some extremely unproven and potentially deadly experimental treatments once an individual contracts the disease.

Some of us regular schmucks actually thought the experience would make the President more humble and compassionate. If anything, the opposite is true. Given the best medical care money can buy (he can thank us taxpayers later), his attitude has shifted slightly, from “it’s a hoax” to “it’s real, but what’s the big deal?”. From his sickbed at Walter Reed Medical Center he painted a rosy picture, tweeting Doing very well…Don’t let coronavirus dominate your life…Don’t be afraid of it…We have some very effective treatments and the best medical care in the world!

210,000 Americans (and counting) could not be reached for comment.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on his promise of “a vaccine becoming available by October.” There are 23 days remaining. The most optimistic news so far provided by the pharmaceutical companies (who, by all rights, should know best) is a Spring 2021 approval timeframe.

Breathing Free: saying goodbye and embracing life

The rain arrived six nights ago. It signaled the end, more or less, of summer. More importantly, while it didn’t put any of the fires out on its own, it certainly helped the firefighting crews in catching and containing the many fires raging in this region.

Since then, the air here has been joyously clear. It’s amazing how ten or so days of thick smoke and hazardous air quality can make you appreciate normally clean air. I must make a concerted effort to never take the simple act of breathing, and the gift that is two lungfulls of fresh air, for granted.

On another note, separate from this but somehow linked in my mind, I joined my father and sister yesterday in placing my mother’s earthly remains (ashes) in their final resting place. She passed in February (from cancer, not Covid), and her memorial service was thankfully done before the Covid lockdown. But due to Covid and some other (albeit lesser) concerns, we had not been able to inter her cremains at the cemetery for more than seven months.

Now, in my conscious mind, this was not a gigantic deal. My belief system teaches that the spirit is attached to the body for only a short while, and that upon death the spirit as the essence of the person leaves the body. In other words, my mother’s ashes are just ashes, and she herself is elsewhere now. But regardless of this belief I espouse, I felt it was still a journey and somewhat of a relief to have closure on this.

As part of this feeling, I am convinced that part of the experience we call “life” is about struggling with, acknowledging, and finally accepting that all things in this life are temporary. The ephemeral nature of life is a fundamental, inseparable element of it. As part of being alive, you must say goodbye to things, places, and people. To hoard or cling to any of these is to be stuck. This does not mean we have to forget them or fail to honor/grieve them. It means we have to move on in a good and healthy way, if we want to embrace living. Moving on, even if painful or awkward at times, can be one of the best things in life, like a breath of fresh air.

Light at the End of the Smoke Tunnel

It’s another smoky day in Oregon; close to 10 days of smoke so far in my neck of the woods. But according to the weather forecast there are two reasons to believe the worst of the smoke is behind us. First there will be a low pressure system moving in from offshore tonight, which will bring light winds from the west, blowing the wildfire smoke inland to our neighbors in eastern OR/WA and ID. (Sorry, Intermountain NWers.) Second there is a high chance of rain, which removes some degree of smoke from the atmosphere when droplets form around smoke/ash particles and then fall to the ground.

Now, in a typical year I wouldn’t be happy for a rain event to be forecast in mid-September; it usually (but not always) signals the end of summer and the beginning of rainjacket season where I live. But, needless to say, this year has been different. I can’t wait for rainjacket season to start, even if it means muddy hikes/rides, wet feet, and frequent glasses cleanings. I’m holding onto hope that fall will be better than summer was. Even though we’ll still have COVID to deal with, the fires won’t be nearly as scary or smoky. Fingers crossed.

Until the Smoke Clears, Literally and Figuratively

The smoke from the many wildfires still pervades everything. The weather has become less hot and windy (thank Goodness), and it appears firefighters are making fast progress on the westside fires. There are several places where the previous evacuation orders have been lifted. These are all things to be grateful for. Still, the smoke hangs everywhere like a toxic fog.

Little by little, the air is clearing up as the days go by, though. It’s almost imperceptible, but it’s happening. Yesterday around 4 pm, the sun was actually bright enough to make me cast a shadow on the sidewalk. This alone was cause for celebration after a week of near-dark conditions (smoke only, no clouds in the sky), where the afternoon sun was a faint orange disk.

Today is the 8th anniversary of the day I was married to my beautiful bride. We have no plans, as there is really nowhere to go right now. For cards, we’re printing pages off the Crayola website and coloring them for each other. For gifts, she bought me facemasks with the logo of the Vegas Golden Knights (our favorite NHL team), and I bought her a necklace that looks like a seashell but is actually made of silicone. It’s made so that on the back she can write her emergency info in case she is found unconscious. Signs of the times.

We plan to drive to the coast this Friday afternoon, assuming we are able to. (All the highways to the coast are currently open save for OR 18.) By then we’re hoping the air will have cleared a little, especially on the coast, as the wind although slight is coming from the west.

Speaking of clearing the air, last night we watched “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix and I highly recommend it for everyone who has ever been on social media (so basically everyone). The types of human behavior manipulation perpetrated by Facebook, Google, Twitter, Amazon and Apple among others are heavily reminiscent of Big Tobacco in the latter half of the 20th Century. They shape the truths we each operate in, and to a large and frighteningly unconscious extent, control our behavior in ways that seem small and innocuous at first. Think about it: until about a decade ago, we could all live independent of our devices. Yes, we had PCs, cell phones and televisions, but with rare exceptions we didn’t carry them with us 24/7. We didn’t sleep within inches of our PC. We didn’t check our cell phone the instant we awoke in the morning. We didn’t rely on one single device for all of our news, work, and social activities…and no single one of them threw a Presidential election (although it could be argued that TV has come close). Now, all of these things are true of the smartphone.

Don’t get me wrong. Smartphones and social media make a lot of wonderful things possible too. Communities can rally, friends can reunite, and families can stay in touch to a degree never before possible thanks to the smartphone and the technology it employs. But the potential evil it can do as an instrument of greed, manipulation, false narration and power must be acknowledged as quickly as the potential good it can do via helpful communication and connections.

Am I going to go “off the grid” and live in the woods without any electronic devices? No. But I have taken all social media apps off my phone, and have silenced all but emergency alerts delivered to my phone. I plan to make more use of my much-easier-to-ration desktop PC. I will still be online, but on my own terms as much as possible.